The Dunning-Krueger Effect

Also Known As: All Aboard The Train To Mount Stupid

I was actually putting this together before my last post, but was distracted by multiple Manchin-related notifications in my feeds, and I was annoyed enough that I put this on the backburner to bang that out.

Sure. What’s with that Chart?

The chart above is a rough visualization of a theory about the perception of competence (or confidence) measured against actual competence (or experience). The idea is that when approaching an environment for the first time, you have an overinflated sense of your own ability. You know that other people have done these things before, it doesn’t look hard. You got this. You’re going to dive in, change everything, make it better, and show everyone. I think that everyone stands at the peak of Mount Stupid at one point in their lives, although the peak isn’t necessarily as high for some, and some people live their entire lives on the peak of Mount Stupid.

Aside from those sad cases, eventually reality asserts itself. You get a little more experience. You start to get a grasp on what you don’t know, and that you don’t even know everything you don’t know. Perhaps you fail a couple times. It’s depressing. This is where impostor syndrome lives. You know you’re not great at what you’re doing, and you think that the other people are, and you wonder why the hell you’re in the chair you’re in. The reality is that most people struggle with competence, but they don’t always see other people struggling. This is epitomized in Social Media: Most people don’t share their struggles, they share a sanitized, best life story that doesn’t represent reality, and that builds an unhealthy idea of what life is.

But with experience comes wisdom. Eventually, you understand that everyone around you has similar issues, you get better over time, and you slip into a routine that you’re comfortable with. There’s an understanding that there aren’t omnipotent beings behind curtains running everything, that people are people, and we are constantly Magoo-ing our way through life. You might, in fact, be the best person for your job. Which might be terrifying, depending, but it’s also a reflection of reality. And if you’ll forgive me for a little bit of preachiness: This should probably build a sense of responsibility, because if you don’t do something your position is responsible for, no one else can.

There’s Always a Different Perspective Though

But in this case, not much. I’ve editorialized a bit, but The Dunning-Kreuger Effect was coined in 1999 by the named psychologists, and since then has been replicated robustly. The most common criticism is actually of the representation of the data, the graphic of the Dunning-Kreuger Effect above doesn’t really represent the data we have, and proponents of that criticism point to studies that give results like this;

While that’s technically true, I’m not sure how important it is:

First - The Dunning-Kreuger Effect describes what is at essence a lack of self awareness. Asking the question requires a moment of reflection regardless of how shallowly the respondent treats it, and that reflection will almost certainly effect the outcome. My impression is that the Dunning-Kreuger effect as measured is an incomplete picture of the phenomenon because the act of measuring it changes it.

Second - Even if the curves don’t line up exactly… The argument seems to be exceptionally marginal; This data still has a Mount Stupid. At no point does any quartile think they’re less than average. The difference between perception and reality is greatest at the lower end of the competence axis. So what’s the argument? Mount Stupid might have a lower confidence peak that the actualization state? That the Valley of Despair is more of a slope? I mean, sure. Maybe. But so long as we all know and understand the base idea behind the theory, these criticisms seem slightly semantic.

What Does That Have To Do With Anything?

Nothing deeply topical. It had a bit of a resurgence in 2019 in response to Donald Trump. Whenever someone who seems of low intelligence gets boasty, people like to trot out the Dunning Kreuger Effect, but that’s not really what it describes... Unintelligent people can be competent and have expertise on individual topics, and Donald Trump, regardless of what you think of him personally, and whether you agree with his policies, ran a functional (if chaotic) administration.

I was reminded of it in the context of the PPC’s campaign in Canada, which was performative and low information, but very excited. All of a sudden, people who had never been exceptionally politically active started to enter the dialogue, and they were hilariously wrong on some of their ideas on how things work.

Mostly though, it’s just an interesting thing to think about.