Well… I’ve officially been doing this for a year now. In that year, I made more than 20 posts, and said a lot of shit. I’d like to go through those posts and do a post mortem on what I got right, what I got wrong, and if I think there’s anything more to say now.
April 2021
In which I laid out what the 25th Amendment was, why it was never going to be invoked for Trump, and why it might be for Biden. I stand by this. There is a better argument for an invocation of section 4 for Biden’s cognitive decline than there ever was for Trump, even if it would be very unlikely to happen, and exceptionally messy if it did. The likelihood of Joe standing in 2024 is functionally zero, which is why smarms like Buttigeg and Swalwell are still making the rounds. God the Democrat’s bench is so shallow.
Section 230 and It’s Like They Wanted To Prove Me Right
In which I explained what section 230 was, and the implications to free speech. Again, I think I did OK here. My point then hasn’t evolved much, I don’t think playing with section 230 is a great idea, although I’m sure that not that Elon Musk is making overtures regarding Twitter ownership, the usual suspects are going to do complete 180s.
In which I did my first post-mortem of a Twitter spat. I like doing these, because it allows for a better and more complete record than a multi-branching, character limited mess on Twitter ever could, and it gives me easy access to material for future interactions. I want to point out that I was completely right here in that the BLM charity’s founders were personally enriching themselves to the detriment of their movement, and as more information came out, my vindication grew.
Projection, Thy Name Is Progressive Part I and Part II
In which I looked at how several of the issues that progressives accuse conservatives of being bad on amounts to an economy sized bag of projection. Part I dealt with “rape culture” in the context of #metoo, and part II dealt with the more topical (at the time) if more obscure example of “cancel culture” with progressives digging deep into history to come up with the Dixie Chicks.
On Romney, Cheney, Collins, The Lincoln Project, and the GOP
In which I point out that never-Trumpers who spent four years belowning themselves and doing serious damage to the Republican party in a petty spite battle going on to say things like “The person who agrees with 70 or 80% of the time is your friend, not your enemy.” is egregiously stupid. I stand by every word.
The WE Charity, Trudeau and Morneau
In which I finally drug in some Canadian content. Trudeau had yet another run in with the ethics commissioner. I explained the issues, the actions, the outcomes, and what parts I considered true bullshit. Particularly proud of my last paragraph:
The worst part of this is that Trudeau’s supporters will take this report and pretend it completely exonerates him. Which will give him absolutely no incentive to do better the next time. Trudeau has had a really flat learning curve… Stephen Harper’s government, whether you liked him or not, did not have these types of scandals. This is not the normal function of government. It’s not the good function of government. And without pressure from his own party, he’s not going to change.
I love being right, but I’d have liked to be wrong here.
In which I explained (roughly) what Critical race was, what it wasn’t and why those distinctions really didn’t matter. I called CRT “The Topic We'll Be Talking About into 2022”. Readers were well informed, the article being damn near prophetic as the election of Glen Youngkin was not for another six months.
I said then, and still believe, that it does not matter if what is being called CRT is actually CRT. If parents say, “My kid came home with X in his homework, I find this concerning, offensive, and antithetical to my beliefs, this CRT has got to go.” Their concerns are not answered by an administrator tipping his fedora and saying, “Well, actually Mx, that’s not CRT.” Deal with this issues. Don’t take the bait.
In which I vented frustration. There have been so many close-to-home, hair-on-fire emergencies that Afghanistan seems to have been completely memory holed, but Afghanistan was the tipping point for a lot of voters, and it retains importance in that it was the issue that gave Biden voters an excuse to break through the cognitive dissonance of their vote and admit that Biden was doing a poor job. This is when his polls started to tumble, and they’ve never recovered.
In which I made fun of the critically deep thinkers and erudite souls that were concerned about the untested nature of the vaccine, while literally going down to the nearest Cow Town and buying out the store’s entire stash of veterinary horse paste. Yes, I’m aware that there were people taking medical Ivermectin…. But there were also people eating horse paste. I encouraged them to get the apple flavor. Back then, and to this day, I fully admit that I don’t know if Ivermectin is effective, and I accept that it might be, but the people taking it, frankly, didn’t (and don’t) know either. I’m not going to take 900 times the normal dosage of an anti-parasitic that I read about on the internet to avoid the medical miracle that was the Coronavirus Vaccines.
Just saying, regardless: It was probably a really bad year to be an intestinal parasite.
In which it’s possible that I made my first objectively wrong prediction. I explained the history of Oakes, what it is, and how it’s been applied historically. My prediction was:
I think the government is going to have an absolutely awful time proving minimal impairment, and is going to end up writing off most, if not all, of their Covid enforcement citations. I’m not sure whether the Pallister government overestimated their power, or whether they knew that they were going to rip them up all along, but wanted temporary compliance from law-abiding Manitobans, but [only] 10% of Manitoba’s Covid citations have been paid, and it’s only a matter of time before the others make it through the courts. And it’s my expectation that that logic will probably apply to most of the other provinces to some degree or another.
This is still true, and only 14% of the 3.5 million in Covid tickets handed out have been paid. But I expected the courts to have had their way with the citations by now, and I’m not sure why they haven’t. It’s possible (I’m not a lawyer) that I was just wrong and these tickets won’t make it to an Oakes test or that the courts will rule in favor of the crown, but we’re still in limbo.
It’s September 14th…. and A Moratorium of Canada’s Election
In which I correctly predicted the Canadian election, and then wrote about my thoughts on it. I did overestimate how well the conservatives would do in seats, but they did win the popular vote (but not the election), proving that Electoral College-style systems do not necessarily favor the right. My first correction was in the first post: I for some reason thought the election was 5 days before it actually was.
The Moratorium looked at the results, and floated a theory that PPC votes came in a direct transfer from the NDP, which seems unlikely until you think about it. I still think the next round of provincial elections are going to be wild.
In which I, a Canadian, deign to explain American civics to Americans. Ans specifically explain to progressives why the system is stacked against their policies and how that is not an accident.
In which I explain what the effect is, how it’s displayed, and the criticisms of it. It really wasn’t topical, but I thought it was neat.
In which I talk about a precursor incident to the “groomer” talk we say more recently in 2022. I don’t actually think they’re groomers, or the slur du jour, but progressives seem fundamentally incapable of properly handling individual cases where the perpetrator is one of their protected classes. Their cognitive biases seize them and they go through the motions in the most awkward, ineffective, obviously wrong ways possible, and no one wins. Progressives would disagree with that characterization, but what’s your alternative? That this was properly handled?
In which I explained the Motte and Bailey fallacy, Schrodinger’s Cat, and mixed the metaphor. This was done in the context of CRT. A fellow had said that CRT was a motte and bailey problem, and I pointed out that while that might have been true for some instances of the conversation, the vast, vast majority of CRT proponents wouldn’t be able to put into words what the motte actually was, so they’d retreat from the motte to the bailey, only to find out that the bailey was a wattle and daub set prop.
In which I make the case that minimum wages are racist by the standards normally held by the same people looking to raise the minimum wage. I assume this is an evergreen economic principle, and stand by it.
In which I explain one of the many, many ways the WHO debased themselves over Coronavirus to cater to the petty dictatorship of Xinny the Pooh. To an extent, I understand the position of the WHO, something like 20% of humanity, and a particularly vulnerable 20% of humanity, is in China, and tinpot dictators like Xi are notoriously thin-skinned. Xi still has blood on his paws.
In which I discuss the case of Daunte Wright, the high as a kite, girlfriend beating, unlicensed drug dealer driving an uninsured vehicle who tried to evade arrest when officer Kim Potter drew what she thought was a taser (but was actually her gun) and shot Daunte once in the chest.
I’ve started watching LawTube, a collection of lawyers who watch high profile cases like Rittenhouse or the recent Depp v. Heard and add commentary. Not only is it great entertainment, I feel like it provides an insight to the cases. I’ve also started reading SCOTUS decisions, which is much more dry and often over my head, but still informative. Recommend.
In which I excoriate Senator Warren for blaming inflation on corporate greed. Because of course she did, what’s she going to do, actually discuss fiscal policy? Hah! This was in December, so it was even before inflation REALLY took over the narrative.
In which I prove to you all that I am psychic, and you should give me your money to invest;
My read on NFTs are that they’re the new hype. Without getting into the specifics of what an NFT is, or what the ethical implications of them are (and there are many), what’s important to remember is what their value is based on. Their value isn’t made up of utility, like an MTG card might be if you played competitively. Their value isn’t made up from actual value, like a stock might be in the form of dividends. Their value isn’t in utility, like forcing a short squeeze. The value isn’t proven over time. The value is in hype. And you can tell this in the actions of the participants. If the market isn’t based entirely on hype, you don’t need to hype it. The correct thing to do when you find an investment vehicle that you think is going to do well is to buy it and shut up, maybe tell some of your close friends. You only blast about it on Twitter in the most obnoxiously overblown terms if you’re trying to get people to buy in. The entirety of NFT value is in what you’re willing to pay for it, and what someone else might eventually be willing to pay for it. That is so subjective it isn’t even funny. NFTs are digital pogs. You either don’t know what I’m talking about (and case in point) or know what I’m talking about and what that means (case in point). This is a pyramid scheme that is taking in some very wealthy people and eventually the bottom is going to fall out and someone is going to be holding on to pictures of monkeys that they paid $10,000 for and can’t sell.
I did not expect to be proven this correct this quickly, but whew lad the bottom fell out of NFTs and some crypto recently.
Legitimately, if this effected you: I’m sorry. Life is about more than money, if you’re having a rough time, please talk to someone.
In which I try to differentiate between an actual coup and what happened on January 6th, with a side helping of making fun of Liz Cheney for being a lying liar who lies. Her narrative does not make sense. Her timelines do not make sense. She is being very legitimately criticized and does not deserve a redemption arc until she takes some responsibility.
Lying To People With Statistics
In which I waste an afternoon crunching numbers to prove to an idiot on Twitter than I was right. YEs, that sounds horrible, but I actually had a pretty fun time doing it, and I love being right.
Honestly, when I started this post, I thought that I’d have to apologize more…. With the exception on whether or not Oakes will be applied like I think it will to Covid citations, most of what I predicted actually happened, sometimes beyond my wildest dreams. Here’s to a new year of being right!
"I love the smell of vindication in the morning."